tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-41543214334610953632024-02-22T23:43:21.552-08:00On The HUNT for VALUEChrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-27865787065234076442015-01-23T09:23:00.000-08:002015-02-10T13:16:45.805-08:00The Consequences of QE
There is a good article
by Mervyn King, then Deputy Governor and subsequently Governor of the
Bank of England, published in 2001 that is very pertinent to today's
quantitative easing (QE) program and its consequences in time.
Specifically, in Chart 1 he shows rather convincingly that expansions in
the money supply, with an appropriate lag, will lead to an
proportionate Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-69201301987819657682015-01-04T11:27:00.002-08:002015-03-09T20:24:05.891-07:0035 Year Stock Market Cycle : Implications For 2017 - 2020 and GoldWe are all familiar with the exponential rise in the stock market
over the past 100 years. However, less commonly known is that within
that rise has been a rather predictable cycle of 35year with distinct
peaks and troughs.
Figure 1: The 35 year stock market cycle with a
sine-wave to help guide the eye. This S&P500 / US GDP ratio can be
considered to be akin to a macro version ofChrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-39099234182050629052012-02-12T14:08:00.001-08:002012-03-05T20:57:29.499-08:00ADF Group (TSX: DRX)
ADF Group (TSX: DRX) is a small Canadian company that designs, fabricates, and installs complex steel superstructures and other metals works to clients in North America. It is a family run business with three members of the Paschini family being executives of the company as well as collectively having 44% ownership of the shares outstanding and voting control via the dual share-structure.
Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-92007687612704721052011-11-08T20:57:00.000-08:002011-11-08T23:41:44.312-08:00Minera Andes : 49% San Jose mine ABOVE AVERAGE in Profit Margin & ROAIn the previous post I presented the case that the market is significantly undervaluing Minera Andes' primary asset, 49% of the San Jose mine. Turning now to some fundamental metrics of the San Jose mine namely its profit margin and ROA (return-on-assets) we can see that it is above-average in its peer-group.
Within its peer-group, the San Jose mine is performing above average in both Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-43514319560005608162011-11-06T15:35:00.000-08:002011-11-06T21:46:03.436-08:00Valuation Multiples of Minera Andes Clearly Show UndervaluationUsing market prices as of November 4, 2011, Minera Andes (MNEAF) is clearly undervalued relative to its peers even in today's depressed price environment.
Valuation multiples of Minera Andes and its peer group. In Minera Andes** I backout the Los Azules valuation from the enterprise value (EV), using a conservative value for Los Azules (LA) of $130m, so the multiples reflectChrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-90277542238773044632011-10-15T17:10:00.000-07:002011-10-24T23:47:56.750-07:00Long Term View of S&P / TSX Gold Stock Index
Taking a long-term view of various asset-class levels from 1928-2011 one can see that the S&P / TSX Gold Index has yet to revert to the S&P 500 / 10yr T-Bond Total Return trend line. As for gold, it is just now arriving at the trend line meaning that it is far from a "bubble-state".
A comparison chart of gold price and the US money supply metric, Money-Zero-Maturity (Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-22356731302033365872011-09-12T10:32:00.000-07:002015-02-05T08:38:55.316-08:00Minera Andes (MNEAF) merger with US Gold (UXG)A large, long-term holding of mine, Minera Andes (MNEAF), is currently involved in a pending merger agreement with another Mr. McEwen company, US Gold (UXG). Since the original announcement, many Minera Andes shareholders have expressed concerns regarding the inequitableness of the terms which have recently seen a modest increase from 0.40 to 0.45 UXG shares per MNEAF share. In an Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-34131999576914688692011-08-21T01:32:00.000-07:002015-02-04T20:34:54.513-08:00Pinetree Capital (TSX: PNP)
Closed-end funds that trade at significant discounts to their net-asset-value are always valuable places to find deeply-discounted investment prospects. Around this time last year I pointed out Aberdeen International (TSX: AAB) which worked out as a short-term double for me. Now, one year later lets re-live that trade but this time with Pinetree Capital (TSX: PNP). Like Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-51648342684676830712011-07-30T21:08:00.000-07:002011-07-30T23:27:10.569-07:00Case Study: Oceanfreight (OCNFD)Continuing with my discussion on the dry bulk shipping industry, here is a case study on the example of Oceanfreight (OCNFD) which Dry Ships (DRYS) agreed to purchase.
From an earnings point-of-view, OCNFD was not that strong of a company as BALT and PRGN. But, with that said this gives a benchmark on what the market is willing to pay for these guys if they fall on themselves. Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-55232572708330064782011-07-30T18:12:00.000-07:002012-02-12T22:04:34.240-08:00Paragon Shipping (PRGN) & Baltic Trading (BALT)Due to the slowing economy, overbuilding of dry-bulk ships and consequently a low Baltic Dry index, the dry bulk shipping company's share prices are down considerably. From a liquidation-value point-of-view, there are two companies I have identified as being quality value-opportunities. Since most of a dry-bulk shipping company's assets are its PPE (property plant equipment) one needsChrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-72457713034848661722011-07-30T16:52:00.000-07:002011-08-27T18:46:56.929-07:00Kura Corp. (TYO: 2695)With the decades long deflation and the recent natural disasters in Japan, stock prices have continued to stagnate as have many of the companies earnings. These circumstances have made Japan potential fertile ground for value hunters and in some cases futile ground for those early entrants (e.g. Jim Grant). One such candidate of a quality company with thriving fundamentals yet a stagnating share Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-32689522075714179222010-09-07T17:18:00.000-07:002010-09-07T17:52:29.986-07:00Aberdeen International (TSX: AAB) Part 2Incentives
As mentioned in the previous post, management's actions regarding accretive issuance and repurchasing of shares have been exemplary in adding shareholder value. However, the general incentive structure of the company and its associates at Forbes & Manhattan is less remarkable and unfortunately much to similar to those that pervade Wallstreet. AAB uses the policy of Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4154321433461095363.post-77647927643659625102010-08-24T00:33:00.000-07:002010-09-02T07:16:24.026-07:00Aberdeen International (TSX: AAB)Aberdeen International (AAB) is an combination investment bank, merchant bank, and venture fund that provides financial services, financing, and direct equity investments to small natural resource companies predominantly out of Canada. AAB is a smaller image of the private merchant bank Forbes & Manhattan which AAB has a managerial relationship with. The stock is attractive at a Chrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00902466205622240508noreply@blogger.com0